“Only” 36,000 jobs lost in February. That is relatively good news. The storyline was the following. Given all the snow, we should have lost more jobs. 36,000 was a relatively good number because if there was no snow we would have seen growth. But we didn’t see growth. In addition, there is a lot riding on the March numbers which will be released April 2. Assuming no more snow, this argument predicts a big positive gain.

The real issue here is what the recovery will look like. Are we stuck in a quagmire of persistently high unemployment (the plank) or are we going to see a sharp rebound (the hockey stick).

I vote for the plank.

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The economy is in much more serious trouble than news reports, policy makers and pundits might lead you to believe.

The Spin

It is amazing that most jobs stories featured upfront the revision to November’s Non-Farm Payrolls. November was revised to +4,000 from the original -11,000. A net gain. However, October was revised downwards – a complete wash.

The fact is that we lost a surprising 85,000 Non-Farm Payroll jobs. A widely respected economic consulting group expected +50,000. The market expectation was about flat.

I am convinced the situation is much worse than we are led to believe.

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